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EVALUATION AND FORECASTING OF ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF ALLERGENIC POLLEN IN EUROPE

A research project of
Academy of Finland

Abstract

Overall objectives of the project are:
(i) to develop an integrated modelling system for simulating and forecasting in time the pollen emissions and transport on an European scale; and
(ii) to evaluate the spatial distributions of pollen emissions and concentrations in Europe.

The project will concentrate on:
(i) the development, evaluation and implementation in numerical model of a unified parameterization of the birch pollen emissions over Europe;
(ii) the modelling of the characteristics of pollen grains (as a special case of atmospheric aerosol);
(iii) the utilisation of the satellite and ground-based data for improved real-time modelling of pollinating seasons;
(iv) the numerical simulations of the regional and continental spatial distribution of airborne birch pollen in Europe; and
(v) the evaluation of the accuracy and reliability of the developed modelling system, by comparing model predictions with the phenological and aerobiological, and other available experimental data. We have selected birch pollen as the first example pollen species, due to substantial health effects for the population, and its ability to be transported over substantial distances.

The system will be based on the Finnish Emergency modelling system, SILAM, and will include also various phenological models describing the pollinating seasons of birch.

What's  New

bulletJanuary 2007. The annual project meeting will take place in Helsinki 15-16.01.2007. The meeting agenda is available.
bulletDecember 2006. The development of pollen episode during April-May 2006 is available. The movie shows the concentrations of fine particles emitted from anthropogenic sources (left-hand panel), the fine particles emitted from biomass burning (wild-land fires, middle panel), and birch pollen from the European birch forests (right-hand panel).
bulletMarch 2006. 2006 pollen forecasts have been started (see internal pages for results). So far, the model configuration is the same as in 2005.
bulletNovember 2005. Project annual meeting is scheduled to 23-24.01.2006 Agenda is being compiled. Suggestions are welcome (send to: mikhail.sofiev (at) fmi.fi).
bulletSeptember 2005. Project working meeting on the status update and emission model development. See Archive for the meeting minutes.
bulletAugust 2005. Two presentations (oral and poster) are shown at the 17th Congress on Biometeorology in Garmish-Patenkirchen. Poster received the "Best poster award".
bullet10-11 January 2005. Project kick-off meeting took place in Helsinki. See Archive or click here to get the meeting summary.

Key Milestones

bullet1.1.2005. Start of the project
bulletEnd-2005. First versions of input datasets for emission model are ready
bulletmore ...

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For problems or questions regarding this web contact [mikhail.sofiev (at) fmi.fi].
Last updated: 10/01/05.